Week 11 Central Section high school football playoff projections

By Gabe Camarillo

In less than a week, we will know where every Central Section football playoff team is headed.

But why wait until then when you have the Week 11 Central Section football playoff projections? The projections take into account everything that CIF Central Section commissioner Ryan Tos has told ESPN Fresno about the playoff format.

Tos said the Central Section tries to create as close-to-even brackets as possible, so the latest projections came up with the following division sizes by implementing first-round byes:

D1 – 12 teams

D2 – 14 teams

D3 – 15 teams

D4 – 14 teams

D5 – 14 teams

D6 – 14 teams

The projections are based on CalPreps.com, a computer rating system tasked with ranking teams, the same system used by the Central Section when they seed teams in order and place them in divisions.

For those who are unfamiliar with the relatively new way that high school football playoffs are done in Central California, here are the ground rules:

1. Teams can move up and down one division from their base. The base divisions can be found here: https://cifcs.org/sports/CS_FB_Divisions.pdf

2. Teams can ask to move up a division, but they cannot ask to move down from the division they’re placed in. There will be 12 teams in Division I.

The projections accounted for tie-breaker scenarios that kick into effect when two teams are within three seeding places of each other. The first and foremost tiebreaker will be — finish in same league (if applicable), followed by head-to-head and record vs. common opponents.

Lastly, we know that divisions could change if teams don’t win their third game — the required number of wins to qualify for the postseason — or if teams opt out. We also accounted for that by outlining what changes would be made in the event that the starred (*) 2-7 teams lose in Week 11.

NOTE: Some opinion was given on which 2-7 teams we think will win in Week 11, and which we think will not. This was done to bring you the most accurate Central Section high school football playoff projections possible.

For full transparency, here is the link to the CalPreps rankings (click under ‘Central Section’):

http://www.calpreps.com/2023/ratings/

PROJECTED BRACKETS UPDATED AS OF 10/21/23, 6:30 P.M. PST

Division I

9 Hanford at 8 Clovis West (winner at No. 1 Clovis North)

12 Garces at 5 Clovis East (winner at No. 4 Central)

11 St. Joseph at 6 Sanger (winner at No. 3 Liberty)

10 Arroyo Grande at 7 Clovis (winner at No. 2 Frontier)

1. Clovis North
2. Frontier
3. Liberty
4. Central
5. Clovis East
6. Sanger
7. Clovis 
8. Clovis West
9. Hanford
10. Arroyo Grande
11. St. Joseph
12. Garces

Clovis East is No. 2 in the CalPreps ratings; however, they must be seeded behind Liberty since Liberty beat Central, which beat Clovis East.

Frontier must be seeded above Liberty since the Titans won head-to-head. Clovis is seeded above Clovis West because of league record (2-2 vs. 1-3)

Division II

BYE 1 Central Valley Christian

9 Tehachapi at 8 Sunnyside

12 Bullard at 5 Tulare Union

13 Madera at 4 Redwood

11 Dinuba at 6 Kingsburg

14 San Luis Obispo at 3 Centennial

10 Bakersfield at 7 Bakersfield Christian

BYE 2 Lemoore

1. Central Valley Christian
2. Lemoore
3. Centennial
4. Redwood
5. Tulare Union
6. Kingsburg
7. Bakersfield Christian
8. Sunnyside
9. Tehachapi
10. Bakersfield
11. Dinuba
12. Bullard *
13. Madera 
14. San Luis Obispo

Tulare Union is seeded above Kingsburg since the Tribe won head-to-head. If Bullard beats Edison, then they qualify for the playoffs. If the Knights win but opt out, it’s not assumed that a Division III team would fill in the No. 14 seed. 

Remember: Division II had THREE first-round byes last year. It could be that same way this season if Bullard doesn’t participate in playoffs.

The next six D-II eligible teams after Bullard, in order – Madera, San Luis Obispo, Lompoc, Washington Union, Garza, and SJM. Since Garza is more than three seeding places behind Bullard, their tiebreaker win does not come into effect. 

Division III

BYE 1 Mission Prep

9 Porterville at 8 Kerman

12 Templeton at 5 Lompoc

13 Mt. Whitney at 4 Kennedy

11 Pioneer Valley at 6 Washington Union

14 Golden West* at 3 Mission Oak

10 Stockdale at 7 Garza

15 Independence at 2 Atascadero

1. Mission Prep
2. Atascadero
3. Mission Oak
4. Kennedy
5. Lompoc
6. Washington Union
7. Garza
8. Kerman
9. Porterville
10. Stockdale 
11. Pioneer Valley
12. Templeton
13. Mt. Whitney
14. Golden West *
15. Independence

If Tulare Western beats Tulare Union, the Mustangs would be the No. 11 seed. We are not currently projecting TW to win, but if they do, expect Independence to drop to Division IV to keep brackets close to even.

Golden West needs to beat El Diamante to qualify for the postseason. We think they will, but if they and TW lose Friday, then there could be TWO first-round byes to keep brackets even and shorten travel for Independence High.

Washington Union beat Coalinga, which beat Garza. Porterville beat Highland, which beat Stockdale; also, Pioneer Valley defeated Templeton head-to-head.

Division IV

BYE 1 Shafter

9 Santa Maria at 8 Golden Valley

12 Nipomo at 5 Torres

13 Highland at 4 Dos Palos

11 Sierra Pacific at 6 Caruthers

14 Liberty (Madera) at 3 Coalinga

10 Chowchilla at 7 McLane

BYE 2 Exeter

1. Shafter
2. Exeter
3. Coalinga 
4. Dos Palos
5. Torres
6. Caruthers
7. McLane
8. Golden Valley
9. Santa Maria
10. Chowchilla
11. Sierra Pacific 
12. Nipomo
13. Highland *
14. Liberty (Madera)

Highland must beat Ridgeview next week to qualify for the playoffs. If they don’t, then we think Independence will be added from Division III. It just doesn’t make sense to pull from Division V since there is already a shortage of qualified teams in D-V and Division VI. 

Division V

BYE 1 Bishop Union

9 Chavez at 8 Corcoran

12 Arvin at 5 Immanuel

13 Boron at 4 Orosi

11 Mendota at 6 Morro Bay

14 Strathmore at 3 Wasco

10 Delano at 7 Santa Ynez

BYE 2 Roosevelt

1. Bishop Union
2. Roosevelt
3. Wasco
4. Orosi
5. Immanuel
6. Morro Bay
7. Santa Ynez
8. Corcoran
9. Chavez
10. Delano
11. Mendota
12. Arvin
13. Boron
14. Strathmore

If Division VI is light because of a lack of qualified teams, then don’t be surprised if Strathmore drops down to fill the Division VI bracket. They would be the No. 1 seed. 

Division VI

BYE 1 Woodlake

9 Lindsay at 8 Rosamond

12 Yosemite at 5 Avenal

13 Foothill at 4 Fowler

11 Riverdale at 6 Orange Cove

14 Tranquility at 3 Taft

10 Kern Valley at 7 Minarets 

BYE 2 Firebaugh

1. Woodlake
2. Firebaugh
3. Taft
4. Fowler
5. Avenal
6. Orange Cove
7. Minarets
8. Rosamond
9. Lindsay
10. Kern Valley
11. Riverdale *
12. Yosemite *
13. Foothill
14. Tranquility *

The following teams need to win to qualify for the postseason: Riverdale (at Parlier), Yosemite (hosting Minarets), and Tranquility (hosting Avenal).