Week 8 Central Section football playoff projections

By Gabe Camarillo

gcamarillo@1430espnfresno.com

There are four weeks remaining in the high school football season, and fans across the Central Valley are wondering — Where is my team going to be in playoffs?

Big battles in league play could change the landscape significantly. Yet under the new playoff system that uses CalPreps.com computer ratings to place teams in divisions and seed them, you could know where your team is headed well in advance.

This article does the work for you, combing through the latest up-to-date Central Section rankings on CalPreps.com and placing them in order, Division I through Division VI.

Here, you will find where every postseason-eligible team is currently placed. Five things to know before you read the ESPN Fresno Week 8 high school football playoff projections.

1. First, a refresher — teams can move up and down one division from their base. The base divisions can be found here: https://cifcs.org/sports/CS_FB_Divisions.pdf

2. Teams can ask to move up a division, but they cannot ask to move down from the division they’re placed in. There will be 12 teams in Division I unless a lower-ranked team asks to be placed in the top division.

3. The projections are strictly based on the CalPreps.com computers, base divisions, and tiebreakers — nothing else. The Central Section will use CalPreps.com when they make the brackets in November and not human opinion. So, these projections — not predictions — will be void of human opinion as well.

4. The new rule this year for tiebreakers: it’s no longer when teams are within two rating points but within three seeding places. Whether it’s on the CalPreps.com website or in the bracket, if teams are within three seeds of each other, then tiebreakers like head-to-head and record against common opponents come into play.

5. Lastly, teams must win at least three games to qualify for playoffs.

For full transparency, here is the link to the CalPreps rankings (click under ‘Central Section’):

http://www.calpreps.com/2023/ratings/

PROJECTED BRACKETS UPDATED AS OF 09/30/23, 3:00 P.M. PST

One Week 7 game still to play on Saturday: Highland at Independence

Division I: 

1. Clovis North
2. Clovis East
3. Liberty
4. Clovis West 
5. Sanger 
6. Clovis 
7. Frontier 
8. Central 
9. Arroyo Grande
10. Buchanan 
11. Hanford
12. St. Joseph

Division II:

1. Central Valley Christian
2. Garces
3. Lemoore
4. Centennial
5. Tehachapi
6. Bakersfield Christian
7. Redwood
8. Tulare Union
9. Kingsburg
10. Bullard
11. Lompoc
12. San Joaquin Memorial
13. Sunnyside
14. Bakersfield 
15. Dinuba
16. Washington Union

Two tiebreakers come into play. #23 Redwood beat #20 Tulare Union, so the Rangers jumped ahead.

#20 Tulare Union beat #17 Kingsburg, so the Tribe jumped ahead.

Tehachapi and Bakersfield Christian have higher ratings than Redwood, which is why they are seeded above Tulare and Kingsburg.

Division III:

1. Mission Prep
2. Mission Oak
3. Kennedy
4. Atascadero
5. San Luis Obispo
6. Kerman
7. Porterville
8. Madera
9. Tulare Western
10. Highland
11. Stockdale
12. Pioneer Valley
13. Golden West
14. Templeton
15. Mt. Whitney
16. Garza

Two tiebreakers:

• #43 Porterville beat Highland, which defeated #40 Stockdale.
• That places Stockdale within three seeding places of Highland, so the Scots jumped ahead of them too.

Madera and Tulare Western have higher ratings than Highland, which is why they are seeded above Stockdale.

Now in Division III, Garza’s ranking was boosted because they faced highly rated Sanger. 

Division IV:

1. Shafter
2. Dos Palos
3. Torres
4. Coalinga
5. Sierra Pacific 
6. Exeter
7. Caruthers
8. McLane
9. Chavez
10. Delano
11. Golden Valley
12. Independence
13. Morro Bay
14. Santa Ynez
15. Liberty (Madera)
16. Arvin

Delano beat Golden Valley head-to-head, so the Tigers jumped ahead of them.

Santa Ynez lost to Morro Bay head-to-head, so they slot in behind the Pirates.

Independence is rated higher than the Morro Bay Pirates, so the Falcons are seeded above Santa Ynez. 

Division V:

1. Bishop
2. Orosi
3. Santa Maria
4. Chowchilla
5. Corcoran
6. Roosevelt
7. Boron
8. Nipomo
9. Wasco
10. Woodlake
11. Mendota
12. Monache
13. Taft
14. North
15. Immanuel
16. Selma

Division VI: 

1. Strathmore
2. Firebaugh
3. Fowler
4. Avenal
5. Orange Cove
6. Minarets
7. Lindsay
8. Cabrillo*
9. Kern Valley
10. Rosamond
11. Yosemite
12. McFarland 
13. Madera South*
14. Hanford West *
15. Foothill
16. Riverdale

The CalPreps computers have three winless teams in the Division VI playoff picture, highlighted by a star. These teams need to win three of their last four games to qualify for the postseason. 

The next best five teams that would qualify, in order: Mira Monte (winless), Tranquility, Granite Hills, Farmersville, and Parlier.